How to fade someone with no money management skills?

BenjaminBufordBlue · Nov 13, 2012

Long story short - I know a guy through a buddy of mine (a book) that takes a beating every week. Only problem is, his bet amounts are all over the Goddamned place! How do you think I should fade him?

For example he might bet eight NFL games in a week:
$110 to win $100
$165 to win $150
$165 to win $150
$220 to win $200
$220 to win $200
$220 to win $200
$275 to win $250
$330 to win $300

Should I just try to match as best as I can with my units?

BenjaminBufordBlue · Nov 13, 2012

I was thinking of betting 1 unit for anything he bets upto $249, 2 units at $250, 3 units starting at $300, and so on for every +$50

He rarely bets to win $300 but then again he might make 5 of those bets in a week

Needless to say my bankroll is nowhere near as big as this guys!!!

vline44 · Nov 13, 2012

If your bank roll isn't that big just just take off the last number of his bet and times it by 2 or whatever you want. For instance if he bets 250, bet 50 bucks.

TheU · Nov 13, 2012

Start out smaller just in case he has a hot run. And when he does lose a few weeks in a row, increase your bets. Mushes can win sometimes too.

BenjaminBufordBlue · Nov 13, 2012

That is why I think I'm going to start with that conservative approach. About 80% of his bets are to win $200 or less. Obviously I wouldn't fade certain bets like when he takes a favorite ml or any teasers/parlays.

2ndbase · Nov 14, 2012

i would say post his plays. call the thread whatever you want and lets all make some $$$

BenjaminBufordBlue · Nov 14, 2012

I would absolutely love to help everyone out but my buddy knows he looks at threads on here - can't risk him seeing his own picks posted in a daily FADE THIS MORON thread lol

TheU · Nov 14, 2012

BenjaminBufordBlue said:
I would absolutely love to help everyone out but my buddy knows he looks at threads on here - can't risk him seeing his own picks posted in a daily FADE THIS MORON thread lol

Then just make a new name and post the opposite of every play against his and call them your own. And he wouldn't be the only mush on here. There's tons of them.